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Reliability of forecasts

Not all weather situations or variables can be forecast with the same level of confidence. MeteoSwiss therefore provides information on the reliability of forecasts. This information states how much confidence meteorologists have in the overall forecast. A high reliability does not say anything about the competence of the meteorologists; rather, it indicates that the weather situation is stable and therefore easy to predict.


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When is a forecast reliable?

The reliability levels are explained as follows:

  • A reliability of under 30% is considered to be low. The predicted weather type is the most probable of all possible weather scenarios. However, when planning weather-dependent activities, reliance on this forecast is not recommended. It is recommended that you consult later forecasts.

  • A reliability of between 30% and 70% is considered to be average. The forecast may serve as a basis for planning, but you should also prepare for alternative weather.

  • A reliability greater than 70% is considered high. This forecast can be taken at its word. However, surprises are always possible.

MeteoSwiss also provides information on the probability of temperature and precipitation development in its forecasts.