Ensemble-based uncertainty prediction for deterministic 2 m temperature forecasts

The demand for local weather predictions along with uncertainty information increases. Various end-users need probabilistic forecasts to assure and optimise their activities. The energy sector uses weather forecasts to predict the production and consumption of energy (e.g., solar and wind energies). Depending on the temperature and other controlling factors, buildings have to be cooled or warmed to ensure optimal comfort. In this sector, there is unexploited potential to save energy (and ultimately, CO2 emissions) and to reduce costs based on good probabilistic forecast"