Agricultural land, forests and bodies of water provide a wide range of ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling, pollination and climate regulation. Climate change will not only have a major impact on these ecosystems and the services they provide, but also on areas that are directly dependent on them, such as food security.
Impacts on agriculture and food security
Agriculture in Switzerland is already being affected by climate change, as the summer of 2026 has made all too apparent. These impacts are expected to intensify over the coming decades. Rising temperatures, more frequent and prolonged droughts, heavy precipitation and hail events will pose mounting challenges for agriculture and also affect food supply.
According to NCCS-Impacts, winter crops such as winter wheat and winter barley tend to yield higher returns due to higher temperatures during the growing season. At the same time, more frequent and prolonged summer droughts are expected to result in increasing crop losses in many parts of Switzerland. Changing weather conditions will also affect the occurrence of pests and plant diseases, hitting the stability of domestic crop yields. Stable yields in crop production are, however, essential for the economic viability of farms and for food security.
The CLIMAGS app developed as part of NCCS-Impacts, shows whether and to what extent annual yields, yield fluctuation and key ecosystem service indicators – such as soil carbon and pollination potential – will alter with climate change in different regions of Switzerland. The app can, for example, be used to identify where and to what extent strategic crop choices can help minimise yield risks.
Climate change is creating new health risks for livestock. NCCS-Impacts examined the impacts of heat stress on pigs and poultry. The findings show that in particular the combination of high temperatures and high humidity places severe stress on the animals. This negatively affects their welfare and can reduce productivity and production quality. To help address these risks, various measures were assessed and recommendations developed – including ways to monitor animals for signs of heat stress and to provide shade and cooling in livestock housing. Heat stress is also a major concern with cattle, as the summer of 2026 has demonstrated. High temperatures place stress on animals and can increase their susceptibility to disease.
Beyond the direct impacts of climate change, NCCS-Impacts also examines its indirect effects on international food and feed supply chains. Switzerland’s established reliance on imported feed for cattle, pigs and poultry could be increasingly disrupted by climate change. Other imports that are crucial for the agricultural sector, such as fertilisers and fossil fuels, are also exposed to significant global climate risks.
For imported foods such as rice and coffee, which are vital to Switzerland’s food and supply security, climate-related disruptions will raise the risk of supply shortages. Even though yields are currently stable in many producing countries, climate risks will increasingly affect yields in these countries in the future and lead to disruptions in supply chains. Mounting supply risks can be mitigated by further diversifying suppliers and sourcing regions and countries, or by substituting certain food products.
Impacts on forestry
Forests, too, are affected by climate change. Increasing drought, storms and pest infestations are changing ecological conditions in Switzerland’s forests. According to NCCS-Impacts, certain tree species will no longer be suitable for their current locations in the future. This threatens not only forest stands, but also the ecosystem services they provide – from timber production and protection against natural hazards to the creation of habitats for native biodiversity. Without targeted support for climate-resilient tree species, the stability and productivity of forests are likely to decline. Tree species diversity also plays a key role in forest stability: mixed forests are more resilient than species-poor forests, as they can better utilize water and nutrients under unfavourable conditions.
Two complementary apps developed through NCCS-Impacts support forestry professionals and authorities in making informed decisions:
The ForClim app (Forests in a Changing Climate) simulates how forest stands could develop in the face of climate change. This enables more informed planning of forest management measures, complementing the existing Tree App.
The FORTE app (Forest Tree Explorer) provides a map-based overview of how climate change could affect forest multifunctionality and the associated ecosystem services across Switzerland.
Impacts on water bodies
Climate change is having a major impact on the ecosystem services provided by Switzerland’s water bodies. Rivers and lakes are warming, with water temperatures during hot spells reaching levels that are harmful to aquatic life and ecosystems. Increasing summer drought is leading to lower seasonal water levels in rivers, lakes and groundwater, with small streams and wetlands at risk of drying up altogether. This has adverse consequences for ecosystems.
Bodies of water are not only significantly affected by the amount of precipitation over the year, but also by the temporal distribution of precipitation and the associated indirect consequences. For example, heavy rainfall can lead to greater soil erosion and cause more nutrients to be leached out of the soil. This increases nutrient and sediment loads in surface waters. In lakes, excessive nutrient inputs can trigger algal blooms, deplete oxygen levels and ultimately harm biodiversity. These effects are further amplified as rising lake temperatures reduce vertical water mixing and promote algal growth. These changes can affect drinking water supply and limit the use of water bodies for recreation and agriculture.
The AquaREL app, newly developed as part of NCCS-Impacts, visualises how climate change could affect nutrient and sediment loads, as well as water runoff and availability, across different regions of Switzerland. The maps provide insights into potential long-term changes and help identify broad regional trends.
A cross-sectoral analysis of ecosystem services
Increasing nutrient leaching due to more frequent heavy precipitation is one example of how climate change can affect ecosystem services across sectors. Whilst agricultural soils are losing productivity due to declining soil fertility, the nutrients entering water bodies are leading to a deterioration in water quality and ecological functions. This example illustrates the fact that the impacts of climate change do not stop at sectoral boundaries, but can affect several sectors simultaneously – in this case, agriculture, water bodies and forests. This calls for cross-sectoral management of multiple ecosystem services – a challenge for authorities and decision-makers whose responsibilities are traditionally organised on a sectoral basis.
A new cross-sectoral dashboard developed as part of NCCS-Impacts shows how ecosystem services across different sectors may change over time and under different climate scenarios. This approach provides an initial rough assessment of how climate change will affect agricultural, forestry and aquatic ecosystem services in Switzerland.
