Impacts of Climate Change on Switzerland – Decision Support from the NCCS-Impacts Programme.
The Programme NCCS-Impacts
The impacts of climate change are already being felt across Switzerland, affecting a wide range of sectors. Under the measures currently planned worldwide to reduce emissions, the world is heading for an increase in global temperatures by almost 3 °C by the end of the century. To meet the challenges of climate change and develop effective adaptation strategies and targeted measures, decision-makers at federal, cantonal and local level, as well as in the private sector, need sound scientific evidence and practical tools. In order to develop such a basis for decision-making, the NCCS Board of Directors launched the NCCS-Impacts programme in 2020.
Background to NCCS-Impacts
From 2022 to 2026, the NCCS-Impacts programme brought together various federal offices, research institutions, private-sector organisations and non-governmental organisations within a national programme. Together, they developed practical decision-support tools for managing the impacts of climate change. More than 100 people from over 20 organisations were involved in producing the results. MeteoSwiss was responsible for programme management and programme communication.
NCCS-Impacts is based on the Federal Council decision of 12 August 2020 (Adaptation to Climate Change in Switzerland – Action Plan 2020–2025). Funding was initially provided jointly through the federal policy research of the seven participating federal offices, as well as through in-kind contributions from ETH Zurich and WSL, and was coordinated centrally by MeteoSwiss. The implementation of the NCCS-Impacts programme was also part of the 2023–2027 legislative plan.
As part of the programme, five cross-sectoral projects were carried out on socio-economic scenarios, supply chains, ecosystem services, human and animal health, and the costs of climate change. Work on the topic of critical energy infrastructure will continue beyond the end of the programme as part of a joint initiative between NCCS and the BFE’s SWEET programme.
Results from NCCS-Impacts
NCCS-Impacts paints a diverse picture of climate impacts in Switzerland. The health burden on the population is increasing, particularly for vulnerable groups. At the same time, climate change is affecting soils, forests and water bodies, with implications for agriculture and other essential ecosystem services that underpin society and the economy. Risks to buildings and critical infrastructure, including transport routes and power supply networks, are also increasing. Overall, the economic costs of climate change are rising, driven both by direct impacts in Switzerland and by the effects of climate change along international supply chains.
The results of the cross-sectoral projects are presented from three different perspectives: ecosystems, infrastructure and the economy, and health. However, the boundaries between these perspectives are fluid, as climate impacts overlap and create complex interactions across sectors.
Methodological note: climate scenarios
The foundation for NCCS-Impacts
NCCS-Impacts is based on the CH2018 climate scenarios. The focus is primarily on the impacts under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, described as the “scenario without global climate change mitigation”. RCP8.5 is now considered unlikely, as renewable energy is becoming more affordable, measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are being implemented, and emissions are rising less sharply than previously assumed. At the same time, very low-emissions scenarios are also considered outdated in light of observed developments. Find out more about the development of climate scenarios on this MeteoSwiss blog (german).
Nevertheless, the impacts discussed here remain relevant for the following reasons:
1. 2060 time horizon
NCCS-Impacts focuses on the period around 2060. For this time frame, the choice of emission scenario is of relatively minor significance. The average changes projected for 2060 under RCP8.5 fall within a range that could also be reached under a more moderate emission pathway.
2. Comparison with Climate CH2025
With its focus on 2060 under RCP8.5, NCCS-Impacts considers a world that is around 3 °C warmer than in pre-industrial times. Under the measures currently planned worldwide to reduce emissions, we are on track to reach such a 3-degree world by the end of the century. The climate changes projected for Switzerland around 2060, as set out in CH2018, are broadly in line with those calculated for a 3-degree world under the latest generation of scenarios, Climate CH2025. However, the projected warming is slightly lower in the CH2018 climate scenarios.
3. Robust risk management
In the risk assessments, scenarios serve as tools to illustrate the range of plausible developments. Decision-makers can then tailor their planning to the appropriate point within this range, depending on the specific level of protection required.
Interpreting the results
As a general point, it is important to note that the future changes discussed here should not be interpreted as precise forecasts. Rather, they are projections based on specific assumptions and conditions, particularly regarding future trends in global emissions. While the results are often presented in clear and definitive terms for ease of reading, all findings are naturally subject to scientific uncertainty.
Socioeconomic scenarios form an essential basis for the analysis of climate risks. The socio-economic scenarios for Switzerland (SSP-CH) provide, for the first time, consistent projections of social and economic developments up to 2100. They are based on the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and adapt these to the Swiss context.
Key messages
The report’s main findings can be summarised in the following key messages:
NCCS-Impacts provides a scientific knowledge base and practical tools to enable a well-informed assessment of climate change impacts and supportthe planning of measures.
The NCCS-Impacts programme examined selected impacts of climate change on Switzerland in a series of cross-sectoral projects. The knowledge gained and tools developed by the programme will help decision-makers assess climate impacts and plan adaptation measures.
The projects also highlight gaps in our current scientific understanding of the impacts of climate change. For example, in many sectors, reliable quantitative data on the expected scale of climate impacts, particularly climate extremes, is lacking. This includes information such as damage functions and the costs associated with climate-related damage or adaptation measures. The findings show that there are still significant knowledge gaps in several areas, highlighting the need for a robust national analytical basis to support quantitative, economically informed planning.
Climate change affects all sectors simultaneously – a focus on individual sectors alone is not enough.
Analysis of climate change impacts shows how closely intertwined the affected sectors are, and what important roles indirect effects and mutually reinforcing factors can play. For example, more frequent heat events not only affect health but also reduce labour productivity, which in turn weakens the economy. Conversely, climate-related disruptions to pharmaceutical supply chains abroad can affect healthcare provision at home.
That is why NCCS-Impacts placed a strong emphasis on cross-disciplinary and cross-sectoral analysis. Through co-production and stakeholder workshops, the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary project teams brought together practitioners, non-governmental organisations and industry, seeking to integrate perspectives from different sectors.
Climate impacts are already relevant today and will intensify over the course of this century.
Climate change is already being felt today in many places. By 2060, climate risks are expected to increase to varying degrees, depending on socioeconomic developments, the effectiveness of climate mitigation measures and the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions. Without sufficient global climate action, climate change and its negative consequences will continue to accelerate beyond 2100.
As these changes unfold, new risks will emerge and existing risks will be amplified. Some of these risks still seem relatively minor today or have so far received limited attention. These include additional challenges for critical infrastructure, as well as vector-borne infectious diseases affecting both humans and animals.
Beyond analysing these risks in depth, NCCS-Impacts has shown that considering different socioeconomic scenarios is essential for planning for climate change, strengthening society’s capacity to adapt in a targeted way and proactively reducing future risks. These scenarios provide the foundation for effective, cross-sectoral and long-term risk management.
Every tenth of a degree counts.
The impacts of climate change and the costs of adaptation will pose significant financial challenges for the economy, households and the public sector. The most important and efficient way to counter this trend remains the reduction of global emissions. To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the global community must cut emissions rapidly and substantially. According to the federal government’s climate scenarios Climate CH2025, every reduction in emissions helps limit climate impacts – including in Switzerland. Stringent climate change mitigation remains an urgent priority.
Nationally coordinated interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research and development activities provide a cross-sectoral basis for dealing with the impacts of climate change.
The first national programme of its kind, NCCS-Impacts enabled various federal institutions, universities and private companies to work together closely. This collaboration involved a systematic, cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary investigation of the climate change impacts most relevant to federal, cantonal and local government, business and society, based on interaction between science and practice.
Vital climate services were also further developed, helping decision-makers to better manage climate risks. This has laid a broad foundation and provided practical tools for addressing the impacts of climate change in Switzerland. The results and climate services are now available for use and practical application. However, for them to remain relevant in the long term to a resilient Switzerland, they must be regularly reviewed and adapted to new findings and insights.