Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal outlook is a forecast of temperature trends for the next three months. Current and past seasonal forecasts for Switzerland give an idea of the possibilities and limitations of this type of forecasting. In spite of the undisputed advances that have been made over recent years, the quality and applicability of long-range forecasting for Switzerland is still limited.

The seasonal outlook is generated monthly for the following three consecutive months for each of the three regions of Switzerland: the north-east, west and south. The charts for past forecasts contain the additional information on actual observed seasonal temperature averages. This allows the climatologists to assess the quality of past forecasts.

In contrast to weather forecasts, long-range prognoses on climate evolution are naturally beset by a high degree of uncertainty. Although significant advances have been made over recent years with the introduction of high performance computers and model simulations, the quality of long-range forecasting for central Europe and also for Switzerland still has its limitations.